BELLINGS

CRE Stress Tracker

Commercial real estate delinquency, special servicing rates, and property-type performance metrics drawn from public CMBS and bank regulatory data.

What This Dashboard Tracks

The CRE Stress Tracker monitors publicly available commercial real estate credit quality indicators across the CMBS and bank lending channels. Data is sourced from SEC-required CMBS servicer reports and FDIC/OCC regulatory filings.

Key Metrics

CMBS Delinquency Rate by Property Type: The percentage of CMBS loans 30+ days delinquent, broken out by property type (office, retail, multifamily, industrial, hotel). Property-type delinquency rates reflect the differential credit stress across CRE sectors and are a leading indicator of realized losses in CMBS structures.

Special Servicing Transfer Rate: Loans transferred to special servicing have triggered default or imminent default triggers. The special servicing rate is a broader stress indicator than formal delinquency alone.

Bank CRE Criticized/Classified Loans: FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions and OCC bank examination data provide periodic insight into the credit quality of CRE loans held on bank balance sheets.

Implied Cap Rate Trends: Cap rate movements — derived from publicly disclosed transaction data — affect property valuations, loan-to-value ratios, and the economics of refinancing maturing CRE debt.

Data Sources

CMBS data draws from SEC-required servicer advance reports (made publicly available through EDGAR and servicer websites). Bank data draws from FDIC call reports and OCC examination findings.

Sources: FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions; OCC CRE Concentration Guidance; SEC EDGAR CMBS Reports; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report.